Q&A on Mexico's Constitutional Reforms

• What constitutional reforms are being considered?

  On February 5th, 2024, President Andrés Manuel López Obrador (AMLO) presented 20 reforms, including 18 constitutional amendments. Among the most ambitious proposed reforms are a judicial reform to elect local and federal judges through popular vote, an electoral reform that seeks to upend Mexico’s electoral system by eliminating senators and deputies elected through proportional representation, a reform to eliminate autonomous agencies, and a reform to consolidate the integration of the National Guard in the Ministry of Defense (SEDENA).

• What is the timeline for the passage of the constitutional reforms?

  The proposed reforms will be sent to the appropriate committees in the Chamber of Deputies in August to prepare a draft bill (called “Dictamen”) that will be discussed and voted once the new Congress is inaugurated on September 1st. While it is expected that majority of the reforms will be discussed and approved in September (still under AMLO’s administration), some will likely be scheduled for October and November under Sheinbaum´s first two months in office.

• What is required for a constitutional reform to pass?

  The Mexican Constitution establishes a rigorous process for approving constitutional amendments, requiring the support of a two-thirds qualified majority in both chambers of Congress. Subsequently, the draft bill needs to be approved by a simple majority of state legislatures (at least 17 of the 32 states). This complex process ensures that constitutional amendments have broad support, providing a sense of stability and continuity in the political and legal landscape.

• What is the significance of these constitutional reforms?

  If approved without modifications, the proposed reforms would represent the most transcendent political and legal change in Mexico's modern history. Since Mexico’s democratic transition in the latter half of the 1990s, several electoral reforms were approved to expand the political participation of minorities and opposition parties. In addition, the approval of judicial reforms promoted the professionalization of the judiciary, and various constitutional amendments created autonomous bodies to reduce the influence of the presidency in more technical sectors of the federal government. AMLO’s proposed reforms run the risk of debilitating past institutional efforts to depoliticize independent institutions and the separation of the three branches of government. 

• How might the passage of these constitutional reforms impact the US-Mexico relationship?

  The proposed reforms have raised significant concerns about the rule of law in Mexico and the potential impact these reforms could have on its relationship with the United States. An independent judiciary is essential for attracting foreign direct investment and ensuring judicial and legal certainty for foreign and domestic business operating in Mexico. Autonomous watchdog agencies are necessary to protect businesses, avoid monopolies, and the judicial reform could fail to comply with USMCA rules and obligations, a thorny issue ahead of the 2026 USMCA review. Consolidating the National Guard under the Ministry of Defense could hinder future bilateral security efforts, as Mexico’s military is reluctant to cooperate with its US counterparts. Overall, the proposed constitutional reforms run the risk of debilitating Mexico’s democracy.