BY MIKHAIL MINAKOV

Disturbing reports that a Russian attack could come as early as February 16, 2022, have brought the antagonism of the West and Russia to the next level. The perception, especially in Washington, London, Berlin, and Paris, that an attack is imminent has led many Western governments to withdraw their diplomatic missions from Kyiv. Also, some prominent persons in the business community, especially the oligarchs, are reportedly leaving Ukraine. However, the Ukrainian government and society show resilience and wisdom in their reactions to the grave threat.

I talked to my colleagues in the cities most often mentioned in the media as the likely targets of a Russian attack—Mariupol, Kharkiv, Odesa, and Kyiv. I asked them about the mood in their communities. Here are their responses.

Prof. Maryna Zelinska, Mariupol

Today, Mariupol is a Donbas city where many Donetsk residents moved to on fleeing the Russia-backed separatists. The ratio of the native population to migrants from Donetsk is almost 50:50. For that reason, our reaction to a possible full-scale war is twofold.

The ex-Donetskians—who have already lost their home owing to the war—will, to quote one of them, “gnaw at the throats” of the attackers. This part of the community is seething with anger, and deep in their hearts they do not believe that a war that has been going for over seven years will ever be finished.

The native population of Mariupol, especially the young people, seems to be getting ready to defend the city. Last Sunday there was an exercise in self-defense for the population in Mariupol, which was attended mostly by young patriots.

I am pleased to see that there is neither panic nor a desire to seek refuge in other parts of Ukraine in the event of a full-scale invasion by the Russian Federation. The store shelves are full of goods, no one is buying up toilet paper.… And I do not know anyone who is 100 percent sure there will be a war. The Putin-instigated hostilities in the Donbas have prepared the Ukrainian population to be resilient and united in the face of a looming threat.

Prof. Dmytro Vovk, Kharkiv

What strikes me the most is the contrast between the news, especially that coming from foreign outlets, and everyday life in Kharkiv. Since the beginning of the year, I have received dozens of emails from foreign colleagues with expressions of support, offers of help, and questions like “Do you have a place to go?” But I and my community are reasonably calm.

A week ago, there was a rally under the banner of “Kharkiv is Ukraine” in which thousands of Kharkivites called for an end to the Russian aggression. Gun stores and hunting supply stores seem to have increased their revenues by selling their goods, and many people have enrolled in self-defense training courses. But there are no lines in the grocery stores, in gas stations, at ATMs—or any other signs that people are worried about an imminent invasion by Russia.

On St. Valentine’s Day, Kharkiv, at least at first sight, is more focused on tulips, heart-shaped balloons, chocolate truffles—you name it. Does that mean that people don’t believe in the possibility of a full-scale war, or does it mean they have simply accepted this option as part of their life since 2014? I think both answers would be correct. I am going to check that all my family’s documents are gathered and stored in one place, and then start preparing for upcoming lectures.

Prof. Tetyana Malyarenko, Odesa  

The situation in Odesa is generally calm. There is no panic; all public and private organizations are operating as usual. If the local authorities take any measures in preparation for a possible attack, they do so mainly to reassure the community. For example, the mayor of Odesa asked civil servants not to go on vacation this week. He also ordered loudspeakers to be installed on the streets in case there are problems with the internet and mobile communications.

From February 13 through February 19, Russia is conducting naval exercises in the Black Sea and the Sea of Azov, and for that reason all the navigation zones will be closed to civilian use and commercial shipping. This situation, however, does not look extraordinary either: after the annexation of Crimea, Russia regularly conducts naval exercises in the Black Sea, closing off parts of it to shipping.

On February 5 the first exercises of the Odesa territorial defense detachments took place. In Odesa, recruitment to these volunteer units began in mid-December 2021. So far, the first military exercises have drawn up to 100 volunteers in a one million population city. The Odesa population has the reputation of being politically passive, and local residents are more interested in increased utility bills and higher grocery prices in local shops than in a possible Russian invasion.

Dr. Andrian Prokip, Kyiv

The situation in Kyiv remains stable in the face of a possible Russian attack. Some Kyiv residents were concerned that the capital city could be among the critical targets of an attack, part of a strategy to establish a puppet government in Kyiv, a scenario described by British intelligence. For many, this was a serious incentive to join the volunteer territorial defense groups.

Some time ago, I felt that people were leaving Kyiv for the country’s West, or even going abroad. In late January, the media reported that traffic jams—a traditional city problem—had disappeared from the streets of Ukraine’s capital. On February 13, the media reported a record-high level of chartered flights from Kyiv on aircraft belonging to the oligarchs and some businessmen.

Nonetheless, this feeling dissipated the next day—just two days before the speculative date of a probable invasion—when the usual traffic jams appeared on Kyiv roads again. A more likely explanation is that traffic had lightened owing to higher fuel prices and the COVID-19 spike in Ukraine, and many people had chosen just to work from home. Also on February 14, the Kyiv airports saw long lines of people returning home from abroad.

Kyiv remains calm and prepares to defend itself.

The opinions expressed in this article are those solely of the authors and do not reflect the views of the Kennan Institute.