The forcibly displaced people in Chad are experiencing magnified flooding impacts and require prioritized, targeted assistance to meet their expanding needs. Since July 2024, catastrophic flooding in Chad has severely impacted an estimated 2 million people, including refugees and other displaced people. This year’s floods exceed the “worst in a decade” floods of 2022, when 56,000 homes were destroyed. To date, the five months of recurring floods have destroyed over 200,000 homes and decimated 430,000 hectares of cropland. Over 13,000 people are displaced and nearly 600 fatalities have resulted from the immediate impacts of the floods, although the indirect excess mortality is hard to estimate. 

While these floods continue to drive internal displacement of Chadian nationals, the country already hosts over 1.2 million refugees and asylum-seekers. Chad hosts 45% of all Sudanese refugees in the world and other refugees from neighboring Central African Republic, Cameroon, and Nigeria.

Disasters Amplify Forced Displacement  

The severity of the Chadian floods is in part attributed to the El Niño effect, which is the phenomenon of warmer surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean that alter the magnitude and irregularity of storm patterns. The El Niño effect, heightened by climate change, is credited with amplifying rainfalls and subsequent flood events. “The impact of climate change is what we’re witnessing right now,” noted climate adaptation scientist Olasunkanmi Okunola. 

Natural disasters do not affect populations equally; those with pre-existing vulnerabilities are more significantly impacted and require additional assistance to recover. The impacts of climate change and disasters disproportionately affect refugees and internally displaced persons (IDPs). 

Refugee camps in particular are at a high risk, in part because of the politics of siting. Unsettled lands allocated by host governments for refugee camps are typically undesirable fringe areas. These areas may be located in the wildland-urban interface, increasing their risk to wildfires, or in low-lying regions, increasing their risk to floods. The outlay of the camps themselves also magnifies disaster risks. For example, the dense population layout and poor water drainage systems in camps create conditions that are more conducive to flooding. Impermanent infrastructure and shelters within camp settings are often not constructed to withstand extreme weather incidents and easily sustain disaster damage. 

Compared to host community members, refugees face particular challenges accessing disaster recovery services, including linguistic, cultural, social, and legal barriers. Issues of access are complicated by the cyclical movement experienced by many displaced people. Refugees, IDPs, and asylum-seekers are constantly threatened by re-displacement, as they are more at risk to repeated displacement by disasters than those who have never been displaced. 

Impact on Forcibly Displaced People  

In Chad, refugees are primarily located in camps, informal settlements, and urban areas along the borders closest to their country of origin. The impacts of flooding exacerbate the ongoing threats posed by the conflict and intra-state violence that already affect the pre-displaced population disproportionately. 

The United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) estimates that at least 15,200 pre-displaced households are impacted by the flooding. This includes 2,000 Nigerian refugee and IDP households in southwestern provinces, 5,000 refugee households from various central African countries in southern provinces, and 8,200 Sudanese refugee households in eastern provinces. 

The flooding has destroyed emergency tents and transitional shelters in multiple refugee camps. Flooding in Sila Province inundated half of the Goz-Amir refugee camp, the second largest refugee camp in Chad. More than 200 latrines were destroyed and at least 13,000 people were impacted. After the destruction of health centers and other critical infrastructure, “the population no longer has access to basic services,” reports UNHCR.  

Persistent floods in camp settings intensify health risks by directly damaging physical health infrastructure, such as community health facilities, that refugees depend on for services. Floods can also escalate the spread of water-borne and vector-borne diseases. The World Health Organization (WHO) reports a steady increase in malaria and diarrhea cases since the floods began and a continued Hepatitis E outbreak. Additionally, floods force refugees to leave the camps in search of drier areas, often exposing themselves to future rains and other hazards. They also then lose access to the aid services offered in congregated camp settings. 

In addition to generating food, water, shelter, and medical needs, the floods set looming impacts on the population’s future. The Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET) reports that the flood-ravaged croplands, movements away from arable areas, and other factors will decrease crop production by 5% in the 2024-2025 season as compared to the previous year, expanding food insecurity in the region. FEWS NET predicts that the lion’s share of the 1.5 million people in Chad who will need food aid in 2025 will be refugees. And food aid, as it stands, will not meet the expected need. 

Despite the dire conditions in Chad, refugees continue to migrate to the country to leave comparably worse situations in their home communities. October floods in Cameroon re-displaced at least 70,000 people living in IDP camps, who were previously displaced by earlier floods. Many are expected to have traveled into Chad. Sudanese continue to flee conflict and settle in Chadian refugee camps in the Ouaddaï, Sila, Wadi Fira, and Ennedi Est provinces. The population of Assongha in the Ouaddaï province doubled between 2023 and 2024, and their population now consists of 47% refugees. The sustained influx of refugees strains the already vulnerable, and now more fragile, market and resource systems in the country. 

The events in Chad are consistent with a larger trend of increased floods and droughts that have dominated the African continent this year. Nearly 7 million people in West and Central Africa alone have been impacted by floods in 2024, internally displacing 1 million people across 11 of the 16 affected countries. The flooding in Sudan, which has displaced nearly 180,000 persons in 2024, directly impacted new IDPs that arrived from Sennar State. Five congregating sites and reception centers in Kassala Province, 400 shelters in displacement camps, and other sites hosting refugees were damaged or destroyed. Kenya’s floods, including dam breaks in April 2024, re-displaced more than 23,000 refugees from Dadaab and Kakuma refugee camps. Some camp blocks were completely “submerged in water,” according to Juliana Dneto, Area Manager of Dadaab for the Danish Refugee Council.  

Image Credit

Shutterstock | Chinedu Chime

https://www.shutterstock.com/g/Chinedu+Chime

Current Humanitarian Response  

Domestic disaster management teams and international aid agencies are responding en force to the needs in Chad. The overall response is directed by the National Committee for Flood Prevention and Management, established on August 5 of this year to implement the 2024 Chad National Flood Contingency Plan. The budget initially projected for the services was $129 million. Refugee-related flood services are led by the National Commission for the Reception, Reintegration of Refugees and Repatriates (CNARR). 

But the aid itself is not guaranteed, as damaged transportation infrastructure within and around camps inhibits the distribution of humanitarian aid to displaced persons. The United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) reports that, given various bridge collapses and other transportation system disruptions, some areas in need are “only accessible by canoe.” Food aid distribution was suspended in Dougui, Alacha, and Arkoum camps in Ouaddaï province for all of September because the ingress routes to the camps were impassable.  

The Central Emergency Response Fund (CERF) was activated in September and October to provide financial resources for flood response and mitigation in Chad. The CERF is an international pool of standby funds that offers rapid financing for sudden onset crises. The funding is directed to fund specific projects proposed by UN-affiliated agencies. Despite a combined $13 million allocated to seven UN agencies for flood response in Chad, none of the proposed projects provide services to refugees. 

The International Organization for Migration (IOM) is working with CNARR to adapt their programming to the flood-specific needs of refugees. UNHCR is constructing and repairing shelters for 1,600 refugee households, and is rehabilitating 170 flood-damaged latrines, among other services. The Red Cross of Chad, with support from the International Federation of the Red Cross, is providing non-food items and other disaster relief services to refugees in eastern provinces. But the coverage is not nearly enough to meet the expanding flood-related needs of refugees and asylum-seekers. 

In the wake of the 2023 and 2024 El Niño season, African government leaders, regional coordinating bodies, and humanitarian partners met at the 9th African Regional Platform for Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR) in Namibia, where they discussed strategies for addressing the impacts of floods and other climate-related disasters. They concluded the meeting by adopting the Windhoek Declaration on Advancing the Programme of Action for the Implementation of the Sendai Framework for DRR, which is a global strategy for governments to prioritize efforts that mitigate the risk and effects of disasters. The Windhoek Declaration calls for signatories to establish dedicated funding for, implement, and coordinate regional DRR strategies. 

Future Trends 

The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) predicts that the effects of La Niña, the sister phenomenon of El Niño, will take hold in the near future. Continued rainfall will persist across West and Central Africa, increasing imminent flood risks. In Chad, the worst floods are expected in the next few months. Poor water management infrastructure and the prevalence of soil with low permeability, inhibiting absorption of flood waters, in the country will continue to amplify the impacts of the seemingly unending rainy season. The depth of the Logone River in N’Djamena is anticipated to rise to 28.2 feet, above the height of the riverbanks, and will result in widespread flooding across the capital city. "This is a record not seen for at least 30 to 40 years," said Sakine Youssouf, head of Chad’s National Meteorology Agency. 

OCHA implores humanitarian actors and stakeholders to implement risk reduction measures as soon as possible. “Thinking we have time to address the climate crisis in West and Central Africa is a mistake,” reflected Charles Bernimolin, Head of Regional Office for West and Central Africa at OCHA. “If we don’t proactively reduce the effects of heavy flooding, drought, and soil degradation, a myriad other consequences await, with much higher costs for the regions' most vulnerable people.” 

Recommendations and Way Forward 

To adequately address the flood-related needs of displaced persons in Chad, policymakers and humanitarian actors should consider the following recommendations: 

• Cross-province and inter-state projects are critically needed to effectively manage and mitigate flood impacts on communities. Disasters do not care about political borders, and in a way, neither should our disaster management strategies.The Chadian National Committee for Flood Prevention and Management, with support from CNARR and international agencies, should consider way to frame efforts around affected communities, regardless of geographic location. 
• The 2024 Chad National Flood Contingency Plan and associated programs should be adapted to include the needs of forcibly displaced people, as refugees and asylum-seekers maintain the deepest needs in the affected population. This action echoes calls from UNHCR, who is urging national disaster response actors to include refugees and IDPs as recipients of flood response and preparedness services. Should another CERF activation be allocated to Chad, multilateral agencies should design and request explicit funding for programs to support the expanding needs of displaced people. 
• Displaced people should be included as active participants, not just as program beneficiaries, in disaster prevention and response efforts. Services aimed to help displaced persons are most effective when displaced persons are embedded in the process. The Sendai Framework calls for a “whole-of-society” approach and recognizes the value of including displaced people as disaster management actors, noting that “migrants contribute to the [disaster] resilience of communities and societies and their knowledge, skills, and capacities can be useful in the design and implementation.” 

As African policymakers consider the implementation of their commitments to the Sendai Framework and Windhoek Declaration, they should act with urgency. The era of climate-fueled disasters ahead of us is no longer something in the distant future; it is already here.